2026 MIDTERM FORECAST · SNAPSHOT

Polls, probabilities, and
poor life decisions

The future is moe!

That Time I Got Reincarnated as an Election Forecaster, but Everyone Is Wrong and I'm in Too Deep

One static snapshot of House, Senate, and Governor race margins and win chances, preserved as published.

Explore the race list
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NATIONAL VOTE CONTEXT

The House generic ballot

Compare the multi-source polling average with the separate published forecast.

THE BIG PICTURE

Chamber outlooks

Expected wins use the published race probabilities. They are not hard seat calls.

DOWN TO THE WIRE

Closest races

Ranked by the current Democratic win probability, closest to 50–50.

See the close calls
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PAST ELECTIONS

Explore forecast history

Compare annual results, race coverage, and accuracy across the 2018–2024 election cycles.

Open election history
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GO STATE BY STATE

Explore states

Search by state or race, filter by office, and jump to each state’s closest forecast.

Browse the states
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Find your race

Choose an office to update the rating summary and map, then search for an individual race.

HOUSE RATING SNAPSHOT

Rating counts

Display-only ratings; probabilities and published expected-seat totals are unchanged.

SELECT A STATE

House win chances by state

Tile color shows the average Democratic win chance across each state's listed House districts. This is not a statewide election probability.

Republican favoredNear evenDemocratic favoredColors represent race win probabilities, not vote margins.

All covered races

RaceD–R marginPrior errorD win chanceR win chanceRating

A positive margin favors Democrats; values are percentage points. Candidate names are listed on each race page from a separate linked reference and do not change the party-level forecast.

The D–R margin is a point estimate; win chances estimate each party’s chance of winning. In close races, they can favor different parties. Rating labels follow the win chance.

A NOTE ON THE DATA

Published numbers, with their edges showing.

We preserve the supplied margins and probabilities. Where the underlying snapshot leaves a question unanswered, the site says so.

Read data notes and definitions