Site guide

THE BIG PICTURE

Chamber outlooks

The homepage summarizes the listed 2026 House, Senate, and Governor races.

• House: expected seats add the published Democratic win chances across 435 districts.
• Senate: the outlook combines 35 listed races with 65 seats already held.
• Governors: expected wins add the chances across the 36 on-ballot races.

Expected totals use probabilities, not hard race calls. Seat ranges assume each race is independent and do not include shared election-wide movement. A flip tag means the favored party differs from the previous result for that seat.

NATIONAL VOTE CONTEXT

House generic ballot

The homepage shows a cached polling average beside a separate national House-vote forecast. Both are Democratic-minus-Republican margins. Poll fieldwork dates do not establish when results were first made public; see About the data for source timing and limits.

FIND A RACE

Explore races and states

On the homepage, choose an office, search by state or race, and sort by closeness or race name. The map colors summarize listed race chances within each state; they are not statewide vote forecasts. Select a state tile to filter the race list.

The State explorer adds state search, office filters, coverage counts, and quick links to the closest race. The state average describes listed races only.

Open the race list ↗

ONE RACE AT A TIME

Race details

Open a race to see its margin, both party chances, rating, candidates, previous results, and available poll archive. Candidate names are kept separate from party-level chances.

Historical margin errors are shown for the 2018–2024 election cycles. D+ means the forecast leaned too Democratic; R+ means it leaned too Republican. Some archives have incomplete dates or race matches, which are identified on the page.

2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

Election history

The History page includes interactive charts for margin error, winner accuracy, and probability scores. Filter by office to focus the charts and summary cards, then open the results table for coverage, seat calls, and false-call counts. Full-House actual seats are shown only as separate context.

The historical panel is useful for comparing election cycles, but it is not an untouched final test set. Races from the same election share conditions and should not be treated as independent national elections.

DATED FORECASTS

Forecast archive

The archive page lists saved forecast dates without calculating differences between versions that may use different forecasts. A day-by-day replay needs matching forecasts and timestamped inputs from each date; those are not all available in the current local archive.

A COMPANION TO THE FORECAST

Artwork gallery

The gallery groups images by series. Select a thumbnail for a larger view; close it with the button, by clicking outside the image, or with Escape. Artwork is decorative and does not affect race chances.