2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
Election history
See how the published forecasts lined up with past election results. Filter by office, compare cycles, and open the detailed numbers when you need them.
YEAR BY YEAR
Margin error
Lower is better. Each point summarizes the covered races for that office and election.
THE NUMBERS
Election results by year
Open the full results table
Covered-race calls are compared with actual wins on those same races. House seat totals for all 435 districts appear as context only.
| Office | Cycle | Covered races | Margin error | Winner accuracy | D calls / actual D wins | Signed seat error | False D / false R | Full House actual D | Probability score | Log loss |
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NATIONAL HOUSE POPULAR VOTE
Generic-ballot forecast vs. polling average
Compare the retrospective national forecast and the polling average with the realized Democratic-minus-Republican House popular-vote margin. Each cycle uses a snapshot from seven days before Election Day.
Loading the 2018–2024 comparison…
YEAR BY YEAR
National House margin (D−R)
Margins are percentage points. Positive values favor Democrats; negative values favor Republicans.
Open generic-ballot results by cycle
Errors are absolute differences from the actual national House two-party margin. The forecast and polling average are compared on the same four cycles.
| Cycle | Snapshot | Forecast | Polling average | Actual House margin | Forecast error | Polling error |
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The historical polling average uses a separate seven-day window from the homepage’s current poll list. Archive availability dates do not verify when each poll result was first published. This is a retrospective validation comparison, not an untouched test; the forecasting approach may change as it is refined.
Race metrics are retrospective, cycle-level comparisons for the 2018–2024 elections. The page does not reconstruct daily forecasts from historical source records. Individual races within a cycle are related, so compare results by election year.